Picked Clean

I really enjoy writing championship previews and form guides before an On-The-Water Anarchy report – it helps get my head into the competition, and gives me a chance to learn more about the teams and sailors at any big event. When it's the kind of racing I do most, it's even better.

All that said, picking the likely winners of this week's Melges 24 North American Championship is harder than most, simply because of the sheer depth of the talent assembled here at Eastport Yacht Club. So I'll do my best for you, and you can see for yourself whether I'm right on the money or just another clueless hack by watching our live OTW reports. They'll start tomorrow night with interviews and some pre-race stories, and the real action begins on Wednesday. Today was brutally cold and wet, and tomorrow's practice race promises more of the same, with 20+ knots instead of 15. We can't thanks our sponsors enough for bringing this exciting event to you, so if you're psyched about it, show some love to Latis Yachting Solutions, Coral Reef Sailing Apparel, and the Eastport Yacht Company, with their hot Eastport 32 motor yacht.

Here are the picks, with the rational behind them:

12th to 16th. Jennifer Wilson is no stranger to fast sailing, and this former Sailor Chick of the Week has Tom Babel to keep her focused in a tough fleet. Wilson's Convexity is part of brother Don's stable of boats that include a Farr 40, J/105, and even, for a brief time this summer, the 60' catamaran Stars & Stripes – look for Jennifer to break into the low teens if the dogs stay on their chains. Henry Filter's Wild Child has been fast since he got his new boat earlier this year, and Filter was blazing in Newport in August. This is a local boat with a talented local team, and they'll be in the thick of it for most of the regatta, if not all. John Kolius KO Sailing, with Farley Fontenot on tactics, has talent to hit the top ten in this fleet, but not the practice. That means they'll be on the podium for some races, but consistency will be an issue. Olympic 470 sailor Stu McNay along with Morning Light alum Charlie Enright are scrappy and fast, and McNay isn't frightened by big fleets, but lack of experience will keep their chartered Erica out of the top ten, just barely, after a strong top ten finish in Charleston. The male component of the Brick House team is Peter Lane, who just happens to be staying in the apartment right behind the house we're renting. Mark Ivey is back with the husband in this two-boat program, but his wife Kristen has the wheels in the family, even without Ivey, so while she's fighting for single digits, Peter will be back here among the best of the rest.

7th to 11th. As much as I'd love to pick Team Barbarians in the top 5, I think they might have blown their wad a bit at Nationals in Charleston, where Jamie Lea helmed the “Babars” to a tough-won second place. The boat's a little tired and the competition here is a world apart from the other event, but these guys – some of my favorites – may prove me wrong. We think another Sailor Chick of the Week will catch a top ten result, and that's Kristen Lane, the other half of the Brick House team (I liked it better when it was Out House). Kristen just keeps getting better and better, and her confidence is a thing to behold. Argyle Campbell's Rock & Roll will be right in this mix, maybe winning a race in the process. With Vince Brun on tactics again and the cobwebs blown off after Nationals, Campbell showed great speed at times during our little tune-up race on Monday. Simon Strauss' Simplicity was one of the earliest boats training here in Annapolis, and the team now includes former ABN AMRO 2 rock star and Laser sailor Andrew “Junior” Lewis on the kite. This brawn, added to the talented instincts of tactician Bora Gulari and former College all-star Jane Delashmutt will have this team fighting for the podium, but it probably won't be quite enough for Strauss to overcome the ridiculous Olympic and America's Cup talent on the top 5 boats. Brian Porter's newest Full Throttle is always in the hunt at every major regatta, and even with regular tactician Harry Melges off gallivanting around, Porter and Andy Burdick will be in the hunt for a podium at this Championship. With the collapse of the financial markets, Porter may be a bit preoccupied, but on the water, he's is in another world, and he'll power through to near the top of this fleet – but not far enough to win yet another NAC.

2nd to 6th. Chris Larson on West Marine Rigging/New England Ropes is in his home town, and with Allan Terhune's hot hand on familiar waters, Larson will be off to the races, and will win at least two races. Whether he can sail consistently enough to win the championship remains to be seen. Alan Field has the WTF team together again, and having shaken off a sub-par performance in South Carolina, Steve Hunt will have this team at the front of the pack for much of the regatta. Franco Rossini's Blu Moon has the superstar Italian contingent of Flavio Favini on helm and Tiziano Nava on tactics again, the same team that nearly landed Rossini the World Championship in Porto Cervo. They are fast in every condition, one of the only boats that sails with an Ullman main and North jib. Blu Moon has proven their worth in big breeze, having conquered big Key West fleets before. Dave Ullman's World Champ USA 505 team has lost tactician Bill Hardesty for this event, though Max Skelley will fill in admirably – maybe more so, considering Max's local knowledge. We're stoked to see this team together, and to see Skelley – a genuinely good guy – off the payroll of that other guy. If the breeze is on, Ullman will fly – perhaps all the way to a NA Championship to add to his pile. The odds-on favorite for this event is, of course, the fiery-hot Terry Hutchinson, with Scott Nixon calling tactics on Quantum Racing. You can't deny that everything Terry's touched lately turns to pickle dishes, and Nixon spends almost every day on these exact waters – a place where significantly local conditions can change the race for those who know them. The crew is as intense as they come, and if they avoid major meltdowns, they'll be fighting for this one until the end.

The Winner. After their World Championship bid in Sardinia was cut short by a broken turnbuckle, Giovanni Maspero's Joe Fly is on the hunt for silver. The class site erroneously reported that Melges Europe boss and current M24 World Champ Federico Michetti would be on board for this event, but it turns out he's gonna miss it, and we'll miss him. Joe Fly should be ok, as Michetti's crewmate from Uka Uka Racing will be on board the brand new boat – tactician Keko Bruni. Along with Joe's star tactician Andrea Felci we're not sure who tells driver Gabrio Zandona what, but too much talent of that stature is a good problem to have. Gabrio had a difficult time in the 470 in China, but he's loose and happy, and he spent days getting the new boat perfect over the past week in the parking lot of the EYC. Zandona is unconscious in the breeze, and surgically precise in the light air, and with a good coach and support team, the sailors will be concentrating on what they do best: Winning.

The Spoilers. These guys just don't fit in the rungs above. I had a chance to practice with Morgan Reeser today, helming Neil Sullivan's brand-new M-Fatic. Reeser is running on Quantum Sails for the first time, which could be a disadvantage for someone without the massive talent Morgan's got. If Morgan does end up in some holes, tactician Mark Mendelblatt (who I filled in for) may be as good as anyone on the planet at digging out of them, and these guys could end up fourth or fourteenth – we just can't call it. Bruce Ayres Monsoon is another team that can win a race and then take a 33rd on the next. They don't have their entire crew, and they admit to being somewhat rusty, but Jon Pinckney can do amazing things in big fleets, and Ayres is a solid driver. Othmar Von Blumencron's Gannet is another wild card, on his home waters this week for this big event. A former Corinthian World Champ, Othmar is a Finn sailor that's shown great speed, and a willingness to sail his own race, with sometimes great and sometimes horrid results.

So, that's the best I can do. To those of you that I've pissed off, eat me. To the rest of you, good luck – and fast sailing. Don't forget to follow all the live action in On-The-Water Anarchy. We are going to have a lot of fun with this one, and we love having y'all along for the ride.