Out here on the Left Coast, much is made over the race to Hawaii. Used to be that the 'traditional' race, run on odd years from Los Angeles to Honolulu was the shit, but due a bunch of factors, not the least of which were some restraints at both the top (speed limits) and bottom (no small boats, no double handed) of the fleet, the race from Frisco to Oahu, known as the Pacific Cup, has taken over as 'The' race to Hawaii.

This shindig gets under way this week, with 70 boats starting over 5 days of staggered starts. This starting concept is dubious at best, often resulting in a very lucky or unlucky 'draw' as to what kind of weather you get when you start, but it seems to be the flavor du juor. We think it's lame. Start everybody together, and let jesus sort 'em out.

Since we are absolutely sure that sailing was invented on the West Coast, and the only things that matter in this sport are what is happening here, we thought we'd take a closer look at the players in this race. Now we don't pretend to know every boat in the race, but we know a few. So here's a run-down on who we think will do what, as presented from our narrow, blood-shot eyes. Don't agree with our picks? Did we leave your favorite boat out? Go tell your mamma.

Double Handed Div. Ratings from 214 to 95. Start July 8

The only group of people more insane than this bunch are the kooks who did the single-handed version a few week earlier. No doubt possessing vast amounts of illegal substances, when these sailors land and say in retrospect, "Christ, I must have been high to do that race", they indeed, will have been.

Everything from a piggy Passport 42 to Express 37's here. We like SA homeboys Two Guys on the Edge with their Sonoma 30 to win it. The SC 27 Giant Killer and Express 27 Mirage will be tough as well. And if one of the Express 37's gets launched, they could be gone.

Division A - Ratings from 209-165. July 8 start

Like a lot of other 'big' races, there are a lot of filler entries, none more so than this class. Jeez, people really want to race boats like Island Packet 380's and Cascade 36's to Hawaii? They must be high, too.

We like the Hawkfarm 28 Coyote. But honestly, we're not sure that we care.

Division B - Ratings from 163-122. July 8 start

What the hell has happened to real racing boats? These are the oldies from an era gone by: Cal 40 , Ericson 41, Morgan 38. Let's go with Victoria, the Cal 40. What? Oh, this is the 'cruising' division? Then we for sure don't care.

Division C - Ratings from 117-88. July 9 start.

More moldy oldies, but some pretty decent ones. The Farr 38's, particularly Petard have to look good. Alakazaam, a pretty decent looks 30' looks interesting, but the little boats get so loaded down with gear that they have a tough time sailing fast. Marishanna used to be fast but now who the hell knows, and the old Farr one ton Bodacious could hang in there as well. Let's go with Retard, er Petard. BTW, the Wylie 38 Naughty Hotty gets the award for the stupidest name. Dude, I don't care if your bitch is a porn star, it's an f'ing lame name.

Division D - Ratings from 85-19. July 10 start.

Now we're finally getting somewhere. From Liz Baylis sailing an Antrim 27 to Seth Radow, the most recent Transpac winner in his Sydney 40 Bull, this class looks interesting. If it blows hard, Baylis despite the little boat curse, could win, as could the Synergy 1000, Synge. Look for a feature on the Antrim 27 in Transpac mode in a couple of days. The J-130's will like a reaching race, but may not have enough grunt to get it done. We think Bull is the best boat and will win this one at the end in a very close finish.

Division E - Ratings from 12 to -15. Start July 11

Who knew nine Santa Cruz 50's would show up? Hell, who knew there were nine of them still sailing? What's too bad is the tenth, Lina, would have won this class if not for a late scratch. A 27 second per mile rating spread is a clear indicator that not all SC 50's were created equal. The former Deception, now called Chicken Little is a good boat, but new owner Bruce Anderson has never won anything before, and I wouldn't look for that to change here. Besides, any boat with Craig Fletcher on board comes with a bad karma deduction. These 50's are great Transpac boats, but are a handful in a breeze. The veteran player here is Octavia and is the odds-on favorite, but we're going with the fastest one here, Gone With The Wind. A big carbon rig, and some superb sailors get this boat in front enough to save its time. Barely.

Division F - Ratings from 3 to -51. Start July 11.

This is where I used to play, with lot's of miles on SC 52's and Cantata. Frankly, M Project looks to be the best boat with the best rating. Velos, the Tanton 72 monstrosity has been completely redone (why anyone would sink so much dough into this thing is beyond me), and must be considered a real threat to walk away with this race. Cantata is not the program it once was, and likely doesn't have the mettle to get to the top again for what is probably the boat's last hurrah under Ron Kuntz' ownership. From the SC 52 farm, Azul must rank as the favorite with Natazak not far behind. Look for SC 52's to be at the front and rear of this fleet.

Division G - Ratings from -81 to -180. Start July 12

This is where the real interest in the race lies, and most obviously with the 147' Briand designed Mari-Cha III, and the latest in West Coast Sled development, the 86' R/P Zephyrus V. I find it amusing that many pundits are picking Z5 to beat MC to Hawaii. That is very unlikely to happen. Sixty one feet of extra length is a big plus, not to mention an enormous ketch rig that can carry an incredible amount of sail area. Not that Z5 isn't as impressive as anything you are likely to ever see, but despite her off the wind abilities, they'll simply be overmatched here. Sort of like Sugar Ray Leonard going up against Evander Holyfield. Good look, but it ain't gonna happen. Besides, being a new boat, a new crew, and unknown territory will see Z5 at less than 100% of the boat's true potential. Mari Cha will jump out to a huge early lead, and though Z5 will have some wicked days, there won't be enough of them. MC will win handily and never really be threatened.

Whoever would have thought that you'd be seeing Philippe Kahn bring a knife to a gun fight? Yet, that's the case this go around as he has been beat to the punch and (for once) out-spent by Bob McNeil of Z5. Pegasus 77' is as tricked out as it can be, and will have the usual assortment of talent aboard, but clearly has no chance for line honors. They may well be in the hunt for a corrected time win, though. How's that for a switch?

Most intriguing will be the race within the race amongst the Transpac 52's. Look for Pete Heck and Bob Boyes to lead J-Bird against the new R/P 52 Rosebud in a very close finish for the win here. One has to wonder where Victoria and Yassou are. I'm sure they have their excuses why they are not racing their Transpac 52's in this Transpac, but it looks incredibly lame for them to not be here. Nice job boys.

There you have it. In all probability, the pre-race hype will fizzle into oblivion if the weather pattern doesn't generate some punch. But if we get some breeze, and the men and boats do as they are supposed to, this could be a beauty of a race.

As has been said, "That's why they play the game."

07/07/2002