This is the time where once again I expose myself as an uninformed, opinionated a-hole by giving my predictions for the 2,225-mile Transpac, of which the first classes (cruisers and Cal 40's) start today. First, the fact that this is a near record year in terms of numbers is misleading. The so-called Aloha Class is nothing more than ten low performance cruising boats. Not that there's anything wrong with that, but from a race perspective, hardly anything to get worked up about. Then there are the Cal 40's - ten in fact that make up their own class. Yes, it's cool, yes it's amazing that they got all these oldies together, but again, hardly the headliner of the event. So that leaves 20 boats, or a full 34% of the fleet, that are either pokey cruisers or vintage tubs. Woohoo.

So we move to the "real" Transpac boats: two turbo sleds, three regular sleds, two TP 52's, (three counting Pendragon), two SC 50's, one Andrews 61, one Olson 40. There are a couple other decent boats, but, that's it? I thought this was Transpac? The Big Kahuna, The Sail Across the Pond. The one everyone shoots for. Actually its very disappointing and not that much to get excited about. But given what we've got, let me take a whack at calling how they'll do, starting with the slowest.

Aloha

Since I don't really consider this real racing, I'm not much interested other than it'll be fun to watch nearly the entire class drop out if the weather turns nasty. But for the win I'll go with the biggest slug in the bunch, Lady Bleu, which is something called a Dynamique 62. I know one of the watch captains and he reports that new marble counter tops have been installed for the race, so that proves to me that they are ready. The Wylie 39, AxaPac on paper, should be decent, but who the hell knows? Or cares?

Cal 40

Yeah, yeah, I know this is supposedly cool, and on some level I guess it is, but we'll see how many of the crew members think it was "cool" after spending 12-15 days on one of these things. Retro is neat, but not for that long. This class also promises to be spread out like no other, and again a big breeze will likely wreak havoc here too. I can hear it now: "Hey, how are we set for heavy air spinnakers? Uh, we have one 1969 Watts 1.5 oz that hasn't seen daylight in 22 years. I think we'll be fine."

The no brainer pick is the brain trust of Stan Honey and Skip Allen and Jon Andron on Illusion. They should win this class by half a day, if not more. There are a couple of others that could pose a slight threat (Ralphie has all new sails on a completely refurbished boat), but nobody really sees, say Willow Wind or Readhead, beating Illusion do they? I didn't think so. Next.

Division V

A small four-boat class, and a mish-mash at that. The one boat to really pull for is of course B'Quest, the Tripp 40 sailed by the disabled sailors of Challenged America. This is a huge effort for these guys, and while it is unlikely that that they will win, just getting there is a victory for them. SA is proud to be a sponsor of their effort. The other sentimental favorite, at least for the Frisco boys, would have been Starbuck the 1968 Black Soo 31. But a giant rating fuck up left the owner very bummed, and he pulled out of the race. We'll have the full story, which is not pretty, very shortly. The battle for the win should be between the Tripp 40 There and Back Again, and (gulp) the Catalina 42 Wind Dancer sailed by PK Edwards, with the nod going to PK. Can you see the ad for the "Transpac Winning Catalina 42?" Next thing you know, some wanker will complain about its rating.

Double Handed

The guys (and gals) who choose this option always rate very high in my "Big Brass Ones / Kook" category. I've always wanted to do a DH TP, but since everybody hates me, I'd probably have to go single-handed. And then I'm sure I'd end up as the modern day version of Donald Crowhurst.
The class of this class without question is the new Two Guys On The Edge. Sailed by the inseparable team of Dan Doyle & Bruce Burgess, these guys know how to do this race and do it well. Dan stepped up from his Sonoma 30 for this one and bought a very cool and very unique "modified" OD 35. Bought is really the wrong word - he stole it! And yes I'm pissed because I wanted this boat. It is an OD 35 hull, with a "cruisier" cockpit and interior. Good boat, good sailors, and they should win here. The J-125 Lucky Dog could get launched, but don't be surprised if TGOTE beats them boat for boat.

Division IV

Okay, now it starts to get interesting. The biggest class with twelve boats, this might also be the most competitive. On paper the OD 35's should be the boats to beat. Chris Busch sailing his wife's Wild Thing should beat Tabasco, and they should push each other pretty hard, but maybe they'll match race each other off the edge of the world. A couple of wild cards are the Young 32 Krakatoa from Oz, and the Ross 40 Paddy Wagon, both of which certainly should haul ass off the wind in some breeze, particularly Krakatoa The ILC 40 Tera's XL has Harry Pattison, and should be strong out of the blocks, but in a reaching or surfing race, I don't see this boat being there at the end. The Sydney 38 could bear watching. And if the stars line up correctly, the Olson 40 could be one to watch as well.

Division III

Six of these ten entries are J-Boats, but despite those odds, don't look for one of them to be the winner. I think this class is going to be won by the so-called Australian Super 30, The Cone of Silence. Yes, they have a size deficiency and all that goes with it, but if the trades are fresh, they'll scoot like no other. They will likely be way behind after the fist couple of days, and then get way ahead if the trades are breezy. If it's light, all bets are off, but still this will be one to watch. The other rocket in this class is the Schock 40, On Point. Faster than hell but scary as hell, let's hope they have their life insurance paid up. They should be the boat to beat if The Cone can't deliver. Of the J Boats, the 125 Reinrag should be quick, but they didn't show well in the Coastal Cup, so the odds are not good for them. The 160 Maitri with Gary Weisman and Chuck Sinks should easily out sail and outsmart the other 160, Innocent Merriment, which is weak in the after guard.. The Mexican owned 145 Jeito appears to be fast but with only one American of note, John Bennett of UK sailmakers, it is not simply not enough.

Division II

This group is very intriguing. Smart money says the TP 52's blow 'em away, and of that much smaller group than it should be (two), look for Beau Geste to win this class rather handily. This new Farr TP beat the other 52's in the Coastal Cup, and it is a first rate program that will be hard to beat. The SoCal homboys of Pete Heck and Jimma Slaughter have moved over from J-Bird III to Alta Vita, and will be a factor, especially if it doesn't get too smokey(!). Let's hope they brought their storm jib along this time. The much modified Medicine Man (now 61') will lead the way on elapsed time, and with a break, could hold on for the corrected time as well. Bob Perry's design, the 65' Icon is very fast and could be right there as well, as could Pendragon with Kevin Shoebridge, Stu Bettany and Kimo "I get paid to manage, not sail" Worthington. The poor "standard" sleds, Vicki in particular, will likely be left in the dust, wondering what the hell happened.

Division I

Now to the main event. You'll note that this class starts on the same day as Div II - can't let somebody else get the Barn Door trophy, now can we? This of course is a much-anticipated battle between Philippe Kahn's Pegasus, and Roy Disney's Pyewacket. Pegasus beat them last time to Hawaii, beat the snot out of them in last month's Coastal Cup, and will beat them again in this year's Transpac. Why? Not only do they have the benefit of using Quantum's superb sails (asymmetrical spinnakers in particular), in addition to their North sails, they've simply got better sailors, from top to bottom.
Let's start with navigator: Mark Rudiger on Pegasus vs. "Pedro" Isler on Pyewacket? Please, it's not even close. Watch captains: Mark Christianson and Morgan Larson on Peg vs. Roy P. Disney and Robbie Haines on Pye? Another beating. Then put Peg's Zan Drejes, Jeff Madragalli, Richard Clarke, Steve Ericson and Adam Beashel against Pye's Benny Mitchell, Hogan Beatie, Doug Rastello, Greg Hedrick and Dean Barker and I think the pendulum continues to swing Pegasus' way. The book says this will be a close race, but do not be surprised at all if Pegasus leads this one almost all the way.

Of course, as Frank Zappa once sang, "I could be totally wrong." This is after all, ocean racing, where anything can and usually does happen. Of course the TPYC has completely ruined the fairness for any overall results to have any meaning with 5 days between the first start and the last 9and it looks like the weather is going to favor the big boys - imagine that) , but the in-class battles, or at least some of them, should be fun as hell to watch. Hey Good Times, right?