Weather And The Modern Mariner

Hurricane Predictions For The 2007 Season Well Above 2005 Record Season

It’s not often that the world of Meteorological Science is turned upside down but that’s exactly what happened this week in Miami. Dr. W. Gray, long noted as the premier long range Hurricane forecaster and his team delivered the following sobering news to the National Hurricane Center:

March 30, 2007
Miami, FL
National Hurricane Center
For immediate release

“It is with great concern that we issue the following forecast for the 2007 Atlantic, Gulf and Pacific basins: For the Atlantic basin including Florida and the Eastern Seaboard we expect 26 storms. Sixteen of them will reach Hurricane status with nine of them being major hurricanes. Additionally, Long Island Sound, New England and Nova Scotia are predicted to receive the brunt of these Category four and Category five systems in late August through late September. The current Reynolds Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies are well above seasonal averages provide for a rich environment for this coming season particularly in the Northeast. Long Range prediction models find Western Europe receiving at least one of these systems at full category four intensity.

The Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are equally concerning with strong activity already beginning a full 60 days prior to the beginning of the traditional Atlantic/ Caribbean season. Last season’s Saharan dust event has created large deposits of unusually warm water at great depths which means typical upwelling will not cool the normally volatile basin as it has in the past century. Twelve storms are predicted for the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico but this year will be dramatic. We expect nine of these systems to become major hurricanes and the cities of Tampa/St Petersberg which have avoided a direct hit over the last two decades may receive as many as three of these storms. Also on the list of cities likely to be hit are Panama City, Fl, Pensacola ,Fl,

Mobile, AL and New Orleans, LA. Much of Texas appears to be safe for the 2007 season as a full La Nina event in the ENSO takes much of this energy into the Eastern Gulf.

The Eastern and Pacific basin are where the major changes are expected to occur. Reynolds numbers are well above seasonal norms northwest of Hawaii now and the resulting change in the Japan current finds SSTs in the 28’C range across the west coast as far north as Pt. Reyes. This combined with the contra-current provides a breeding ground just off the Baja, Mexico coast capable of generating as many as three major hurricanes that we feel will affect areas between San Diego and San Francisco for the first time in fifty years. This event combined with the record low rainfall across the southwest this year will set the stage for a potentially cataclysmic flash flood event. Local officials and regional watershed managers have been informed of this forecast. Several have already requested FEMA funds to try and deal with the poor condition of the flood control infrastructure. The funds may be too little too late as the first storms could affect the southwest in May when the Pacific basin season begins.

The Central Pacific (CPHC) will also see above normal cyclone activity in 2007. Hawaii residents should be prepared for at least one major hurricane in 2007. This storm has been put on special order by the larger boats in the Trans Pac race and the storm while expensive, should catch the slower boats prior to their arrival in Honolulu during the race. This will allow those with deep pockets a much greater chance of winning the handicap overall. If you are still reading this please check your calendar. There are just 45 days left until the Pacific Hurricane season, which of course makes today, April fools.

04/01/07